We study the optimal choice of quasi-likelihoods for nearly integrated, possibly non-normal, autoregressive models. It turns out that the two most natural candidate criteria, minimum Mean Squared Error (MSE) and maximumpower against the unit root null, give rise to different...

We provide a methodology to disentangle the long-run relation between variables from their own dynamics. Macroeconomic and aggregate financial series have a high degree of inertia. If this persistence is not properly accounted for, spurious correlations will give rise to paradoxes. Our procedure...

We detect a new stylized fact about the common dynamics of macroeconomic and financial aggregates. The rate of decay of the memory (or persistence) of these series is depicted by their autocorrelation functions (ACFs), and they all fit very closely a parsimonious four-parameter functional form...

Starting from microeconomic foundations, we derive a general formula for the aggregation of outputs of heterogeneous firms (or sectors), and we solve explicitly for the fundamental intertemporal equilibrium path of the aggregate economy. The firms are subject to temporary technology shocks, but...

Suppose we have observations ranging over t = 0; 1;... T on real net investment, {In;t} , and on real gross investment, {Ig;t}. We derive a method of calculating the depreciation rate for each of the periods {delta t} , and estimating `the' implied net capital stock {Kt}. We then provide empirical...