Is the US stock market overvalued? I use Shiller's CAPE to predict the return of investing in the S&P500 index. Siegel argues that the recent fall in the share of earnings that are paid out as dividends has biased downwards predictions from the CAPE. I offer a solution to the problem of reduced...

Historically, United States mutual funds have often calculated their asset values for international mutual funds using stale prices, because some fund components finish trading before the market closes. This resulted in daily fund returns becoming predictable. This allows an arbitrage...

GMO is a well known mutual fund company that serves wealthy clients. The minimum investment for a mutual fund account is 10 million dollars. GMO’s web site is a font of useful and entertaining information. Should the Vanguard investor who can’t afford to invest with GMO be envious of the...

Each month, GMO publishes on the web its predictions of the real rate of return for various asset styles over the next seven years. Its web library retains its quarterly predictions, dating back to the end of the second quarter of 2000. This inquiry explores whether they predict the performance...

GMO offers a mutual fund which is free to change its composition of assets in accordance with expected risks and returns. It is called the GMO Benchmark Free Allocation Fund III, ticker: GBMFX. This study asks whether one could obtain the same performance by adjusting one’s holdings of...

This paper explores the relationship between manufacturing and growth rate in recent years. Authors undertake a simple cross-country analysis using UN data. When controlling for variables relevant to growth, find no significant relationship between the two variables.

Two common views are that a country cannot develop without a strong manufacturing base and that trade restrictions are essential to facilitate the development of that strong manufacturing base and thus spur economic growth. We ask: <ul><li>Does a strong manufacturing share of GDP facilitate economic...</li></ul>