A forward intensity model for the prediction of corporate defaults over different future periods is proposed. Maximum pseudo-likelihood analysis is then conducted on a large sample of the US industrial and financial firms spanning the period 1991-2011 on a monthly basis. Several commonly used...

In this paper, we estimate the de facto RMB exchange rate regime, currency basket, floating band and foreign exchange market pressure before and after the reform of the Chinese exchange rate regime in 2005. The stylized facts indicate that the value of RMB became more stable; the weight of US...

This paper reviews the evolution of China''s real effective exchange rate between 1980 and 2002, and uses a structural vector autoregression model to study the relative importance of different types of macroeconomic shocks for fluctuations in the real exchange rate. The structural decomposition...

Lending institutions’ reluctance to lend to MSMEs or to offer them competitive interest rates stems from the relatively costly information acquisition for small loans. The central idea is to bridge the information gap between the demand and the supply side by creating a credit analytics...

In this paper, we analyze the asymmetric pure strategy equilibria in a dynamic game of pure information externality. Each player receives a private signal and chooses whether and when to invest. In some of the periods, only a subgroup of the players make decisions, which we call bunching, while...

The rich-get-richer mechanism (agents increase their ``wealth'' randomly at a rate proportional to their holdings) is often invoked to explain the Pareto power-law distribution observed in many physical situations, such as the degree distribution of growing scale free nets. We use two different...

Energy ladder model and energy stacking model have been proposed in the literature to describe the relations between income growth and transition of energy consumed by households. Both models are largely descriptive and provide limited guidelines for quantitative verification. By contrast, the...

Metal- and halide-free catalyst DABCO·HSac, i.e. the binary adduct of 1,4-diazabicyclo[2.2.2]octane (DABCO) and saccharin (HSac), in an ionic pair structure of DABCO-H⁺·Sac⁻ is shown mild and efficient in promoting the cycloaddition of CO 2 into epoxides (CCE) reactions. Under...