The calibration of probability or confidence judgments concerns the association between the judgments and some estimate of the correct probabilities of events. Researchers rely on estimates using relative frequencies computed by aggregating data over observations. We show that this approach...

We assess changes to oral argument at the U.S. Supreme Court precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the degree to which those changes persisted once the justices became used to the new procedures. To do so, we examine whether key attributes of these proceedings changed as the Court...

We construct the complete network of 28,951 majority opinions written by the U.S. Supreme Court and the cases they cite from 1792 to 2005. We illustrate some basic properties of this network and then describe a method for creating importance scores using the data to identify the most important...

Ellsberg?s famous paradox [1961] focused attention on the importance of the precision of the probabilities underlying risky choice. Following his seminal work numerous studies have demonstrated that people are generally averse to imprecisely specified (vague) probabilities. In many important...

Credit checks are an increasingly common selection procedure for American jobs, and they are distinct in a number of ways from the selection tests typically studied by researchers. With a credit check, applicants do not actually take a test or answer questions, and most will be uncertain about...

Understanding the factors influencing transit ridership is central to decisions on transportation system investments and the pricing and deployment of transit services. Yet most previous analyses of transit ridership have examined one or just a few systems, have not included many of the control...

Public subsidy of transit services has increased dramatically in recent years, with little effect on overall ridership. Quite obviously, a clear understanding of the factors influencing transit ridership is central to decisions on investments in and the pricing and deployment of transit...