Rational respondents to economic surveys may report as a point forecast any measure of the central tendency of their … tests of forecast rationality when the measure of central tendency used by the respondent is unknown. We overcome an …

Based on German business cycle forecast reports covering 10 German institutions for the period 1993-2017, the paper …

models' out-of-sample forecasting performance for the period 2012 q3 to 2016 q2 by using a number of forecast evaluation … Statistics. Additionally, we constructed several composite forecasts in order to test whether a combination forecast is superior … increases. Second, the disaggregated ARIMA model has the smallest forecasting errors. Third, majority of the forecast evaluation …

various types of legal and shadow economic activities and their interrelations. The model is used to forecast the whole (legal … Ukrainian authorities take an active position in the implementation of the developed forecast for the economic development of …