In this paper we study 2-state Markov switching VAR models of monthly unemployment and inflation for three countries …: Sweden, United Kingdom, and the United States. The primary purpose is to examine if periods of low inflation are associated … variance in unemployment. In the U.S. case we find that the variance of unemployment is lower in the low inflation regime than …

. -- New Keynesian Phillips curve ; cointegration ; vector autoregressive model …

. -- New Keynesian Phillips curve ; cointegration ; vector autoregressive model …

rate, unemployment and inflation in West Germany from the early 1960s up to 2004 using a multivariate co-integration …New-Keynesian macroeconomic models typically assume that any long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment is … data a strong negative correlation between the trend components of inflation and unemployment. We show that this finding …

useful information about variables such as commodity prices which matter for aggregate demand and thus inflation. Given this …

observed puzzling co-movement. The computation also indicates that decrease in expected variation in inflation, results in … increased unemployment by 61.0 per cent decrease in the variation in expected inflation associated with a unit change in the …

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. While this statement is widely accepted in terms of a long-run relationship, the … quantity theory has been made operational also for the short-run dynamics of inflation by so-called Pstar models. An error … inflation. The response of the HICP is strongly positive. Other factors such as raw material prices and unit labor costs also …

effects of uncertainty shocks on inflation. We find the response of inflation to be statistically insignificant until mid …