We present a model that illustrates the close relationship between the possibility of a currency crisis and the amount of private-sector debt within a four-stage sequential game framework. In the first stage, the government announces its exchange rate policy, and all agents in the economy...

With a four-stage sequential game model, we study how bailouts ameliorate the effects of liquidation on fundamentals, reduce the likelihood of currency crises and affect the financial sector's (non-observable) effort. In stage 1, exchange rate regime is announced and all agents receive...

With a four-stage sequential game model, we analyse two bailout policies, one when the government commits ex-ante and another, in which it does not, both to an optimal bailout. We study if each of these policies ameliorate the effects of liquidation on fundamentals, reduce the likelihood of...

The rise and fall of Argentina's currency board illustrates the extent to which the advantages of hard pegs have been overstated. The currency board did provide nominal stability and boosted financial intermediation, at the cost of endogenous financial dollarization, but did not foster fiscal or...

This article uses a crisis index based on an average of the variations in currency and financial crises indicators, referred to as “twin crises”, adjusting them to the same volatility. Thus, the objective is to measure the degree of vulnerability to twin crises within a group of 19 countries...

Currency and financial turmoils in international capital markets have been the focus of an extensive theoretical research which started around 30 years ago. This paper provides a synthetic overview of this theoretical modeling. We analyze the basic analytical framework corresponding to the...

This paper studies the survival of fixed exchange rate regimes. The probability of an exit from a fixed exchange rate regime depends on the time spent within this regime. In such a context durations models are appropriate, in particular because of the possible non-monotonic pattern of duration...

This paper studies the survival of fixed exchange rate regimes. The probability of an exit from a fixed exchange rate regime depends on the time spent within this regime. In such a context durations models are appropriate, in particular because of the possible non-monotonic pattern of duration...

The aim is to show how and when government insolvency implies a fixed exchange rate regime crisis. To model these issues I try to unify a stylized macroeconomic model with a standard micro agent behavior toward asset pricing. The equilibrium condition between demand and supply of public debt,...