This study analyses the inherent evolution dynamics of economic activity and global oil prices in China using the tools of wavelet and wavelet-based VAR-GARCH-BEKK model. Besides, the Wavelet-Granger causality test of Olayeni (2016) provides us further insights into the magnitude and direction...

We study how the output gap affects potential output over time-i.e., the dynamic hysteresis effect. To do so, we introduce novel unobserved components (UC) models that consider hysteresis as a sequence of lagged effects, thus separating the long-run recession-induced adverse effects from other...

We present a model for hourly electricity load forecasting based on stochastically time-varying processes that are designed to account for changes in customer behaviour and in utility production efficiencies. The model is periodic: it consists of different equations and different parameters for...