) exploring the role that measures of expectations can play in forecasting inflation. While it is households' and firms' inflation … can play in forecasting inflation, this paper finds that they are indicative for future inflationary developments. When it …This paper summarises the findings of the Eurosystem's Expert Group on Inflation Expectations (EGIE), which was one of …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …; (iv) newer generation Phillips curve models with several timevarying features are a promising avenue for forecasting …

the beginning of 2018. They also have performed well in forecasting the direction of inflation. In terms of the …This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators for euro area headline and core inflation with … an aim to provide early signals about turning points in the respective inflation cycle. The series included in the two …

. However, numerous institutions, including the European Central Bank, regularly publish forecasts for future inflation that … deviate from market expectations. We investigate the relative predictive accuracy of the ECB’s short-term inflation … projections against predictions derived from the market prices of short-term inflation-linked swaps (fixings) in 2018-2023. We …

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. While this statement is widely accepted in terms of a long-run relationship, the … quantity theory has been made operational also for the short-run dynamics of inflation by so-called Pstar models. An error … inflation. The response of the HICP is strongly positive. Other factors such as raw material prices and unit labor costs also …

and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of … monetary and credit aggregates are very often selected among the top predictors of inflation, with their predictive power … relative to other predictors generally improving in the post-2012 period. An out-of-sample forecasting exercise indicates that …

inflation and output play an important role. In this paper we illustrate how modern sticky-price dynamic stochastic general … equilibrium (DSGE) models, estimated using Bayesian techniques, can become an additional useful tool in the forecasting kit of … central banks. First, we show that the forecasting performance of such models compares well with a-theoretical vector …