Financial markets embed expectations of central bank policy into asset prices. This paper compares two approaches that extract a probability density of market beliefs. The first is a simulatedmoments estimator for option volatilities described in Mizrach (2002); the second is a new approach...

Financial markets embed expectations of central bank policy into asset prices. This paper compares two approaches that extract a probability density of market beliefs. The first is a simulated moments estimator for option volatilities described in Mizrach (2002); the second is a new approach...

We introduce the new F-Riesz distribution to model tail-heterogeneity in fat-tailed covariance matrix observations. In contrast to the typical matrix-valued distributions from the econometric literature, the F-Riesz distribution allows for different tail behavior across all variables in the...

Financial times series, and commodity prices in particular, are known to exhibit fat tails in the distribution of prices. As with many natural resources price series, the arrival of new information can lead to unexpectedly rapid changes-or jump-in prices. This suggests that natural resource...

The network structure of non-centrally cleared derivative markets, uncovered via the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR), is investigated with a focus on the Covid-19 market turmoil period. Initial and variation margin networks are reconstructed to analyze channels of potential...

We advocate the use of absolute moment ratio statistics in conjunctionwith standard variance ratio statistics in order to disentangle lineardependence, non-linear dependence, and leptokurtosis in financial timeseries. Both statistics are computed for multiple return horizonssimultaneously, and...

We introduce the new F-Riesz distribution to model tail-heterogeneity in fat-tailed covariance matrix observations. In contrast to the typical matrix-valued distributions from the econometric literature, the F-Riesz distribution allows for di↵erent tail behavior across all variables in the...

Financial times series, and commodity prices in particular, are known to exhibit fat tails in the distribution of prices. As with many natural resources price series, the arrival of new information can lead to unexpectedly rapid changes-or jump-in prices. This suggests that natural resource...

Financial markets embed expectations of central bank policy into asset prices. This paper compares two approaches that extract a probability density of market beliefs. The first is a simulatedmoments estimator for option volatilities described in Mizrach (2002); the second is a new approach...