Intuitively, we would expect that an increase in the military preparations of potential enemies imply that the rival perceives an increase in the likelihood of future conflict. In this paper, we present a simple model that suggests that, surprisingly, the relationship is ambiguous. We find that...

In the defense policy literature, it is widely believed that there is a pronounced bias towards the procurement of a less than optimal number of excessively sophisticated weapons. In this paper, we consider the possibility that this perceived bias is the result of the timing and informational...

This paper focuses on the evolution of the relationship between population and economic growth from Hume to New Growth Theory. In the paper, we show that there were two main views on the subject. There were those who assumed that the relationship between fertility rates and income was positive....

The transcript of a panel discussion marking the fiftieth anniversary of John Muth's "Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements" (Econometrica 1961). The panel consists of Michael Lovell, Robert Lucas, Dale Mortensen, Robert Shiller, and Neil Wallace. The discussion is moderated by...

This paper deals with the evolution of the "classical" growth research program of Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans vintage via its stochastic "variants" and "generalizations" (Samuelson 1976, note 1). Thus, here we trace the origins and impact of the stochastic generalization that brought about a paradigm...

The transcript of a panel discussion marking the fiftieth anniversary of John Muth's “Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements” (Econometrica 1961). The panel consists of Michael Lovell, Robert Lucas, Dale Mortensen, Robert Shiller, and Neil Wallace. The discussion is...