This paper sets out a methodology for constructing fan charts for the government deficit and debt ratios over the medium-term. It relies on information contained in Stability/Convergence Programme Updates, a model of the relevant stochastic process (for example, the real GDP process) or...

Applying a t-DCC-GARCH model to daily spread data, four phases of interaction in euro area sovereign bond markets are identified between January 2008 and June 2013. The initial period (January-October 2008) is followed by a general rise in pairwise correlation values between November 2008 and...

The performance of the Irish economy over the period 2002-2019 varied considerably, with a credit-led boom up to 2007 being followed by a sharp fall in economic activity and house prices in the following five years. This provides a valuable sample for investigating the relevance of the housing...

The credit-driven housing net worth channel has been identified as a determinant of the sharp drop in US employment between 2007 and 2009. We examine the impact of this channel on the labour market in Europe using panel data for 20 countries covering the period 1996 to 2017. This period saw...

In the growing literature on the importance of household balance sheets to macroeconomic developments, the relationship between housing wealth and fiscal outturns needs consideration given the likely links between housing market developments and particular tax headings. We adopt the housing net...

Models of inflation usually have monetary policy affecting the economy through either an interest rate channel or a monetary/credit quantity channel but not through both simultaneously. It is argued here that policy is transmitted via two distinct types of agents – those that are and that are...

The performance of the Irish economy stands out across western economies over the past two decades as the later years of its "Celtic Tiger" phase gave way to a sharp and extremely large economic downturn between 2008 and 2012. This severe recession has been followed by a Lazarus-style economic...