This paper examines the impact that uncertainty over economic growth may have on global energy transition and CO2 prices. We use a general-equilibrium model derived from MERGE, and define several stochastic scenarios for economic growth. Each scenario is characterized by the likelihood of a...

This paper proposes a real option capacity expansion model for power generation with several technologies that differ in operation and investment costs. The economy is assumed perfectly competitive and the instantaneous payoff accruing from the generation system is the instantaneous welfare...

Up to now, the European natural gas trade was dominated by bilateral long-term upstream agreements between producers and midstreamers that fixed a minimum volume to be exchanged (Take Or Pay) and a price formula that was usually indexed on oil products prices. These arrangements were believed to...

This paper considers the problem of the optimal timing of the exchange of the sum of n geometric Brownian motions for the sum of m others. We propose a closed form determinable stopping time based on the heuristic principle of smooth fit. We cannot prove that this stopping time is optimal....

This paper considers the general problem of optimal timing of the exchange of the sum of n Ito-diffusions for the sum of m others (e.g., the optimal time to exchange a geometric Brownian motion for a geometric mean reverting process). We first contribute to the literature by providing analytical...

The pricing of contingent claims in the wholesale power market is a controversial topic. Important challenges come from the non-storability of electricity and the number of parameters that impact the market. We propose an equilibrium model based on the fundamentals of power generation. In a...

Financial derivatives are important hedging tool for asset’s manager. Electricity is by its very nature the most volatile commodity, which creates big incentive to share the risk among the market participants through financial contracts. But, even if volume of derivatives contracts traded on...

Cross-border trade remains a contentious issue in the restructuring of the European electricity market. Difficulties stem from the lack of a common market design, the separation between energy and transmission markets and the insufficient coordination between Transmission System Operators...

Real options present a wide topic in investment litterature nowadays. However, despite big advances in the single asset investment pricing, the theory is miser of informations about problems involving more than one asset. We show in this paper that using dynamic programming, one can find an...

We consider a stochastic version of the Stackelberg-Nash-Cournot model proposed by Murphy et al. (1983). In the first stage, the leader chooses and announces his production level taking into account the reaction of the followers. The decision of the leader is taken when market demand is...