Speaking note, Royal Society of Edinburgh, January 2014

  Background The availability of bank finance to small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) is important to allow SMEs to start up and finance investment for growth. There has been widespread comment regarding the continued difficulty SMEs perceive in obtaining external finance since the...

Festival of Politics 2013 �

This paper considers which currency option would be best for an independent Scotland. We examine three currency options: being part of a sterling currency union, adopting the euro, or having an independent currency. No currency option is the best when considered against all criteria. Therefore,...

This Discussion Paper is an updated and revised version of a paper accepted to the Oxford Review of Economic Policy to reflect the subsequent data releases. Dr Angus Armstrong, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, Economic and Social Research, Council Senior Fellow and Centre...

In a recent article Gneiting, Balabdaoui and Raftery (JRSSB, 2007) propose the criterion of sharpness for the evaluation of predictive distributions or density forecasts. They motivate their proposal by an example in which standard evaluation procedures based on probability integral transforms...

This papers identifies the information content at the firm-level of qualitative business survey data by first examining the consistency between these data and the quantitative data provided by the same respondents to the UK’s ONS in official surveys. Since the qualitative data are published...

The importance of contemporary trends in fertility and female labour supply is well recognised. Unfortunately, our understanding of these inter-related phenomena has been hampered by the difficulties that are associated with formulating a structural model of behaviour that reflects the joint...

This paper discusses the way in which payments from pooled annuity funds need to be adjusted to take account of the fact that future mortality rates are uncertain. Mortalityadjusted annuities, as we describe payments from the pooled fund are variable annuities in which aggregate mortality risk...

Using nationally representative workplace data for Britain we show how employers have changed their usage of contingent pay schemes over the last quarter century. We find workplaces are more likely to use collective forms of pay system than they did in the past, and they are more likely to use...