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It is generally believed that the recession of 2007-2009 was not foreseen by business economists. Is this perceived view accurate? We explore this issue by examining business economists’ published statements about economic conditions. We compare these qualitative forecasts with the Beige Book....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009225823
exclusively upon contemporaneous sources, including the recently released transcripts of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC …) meetings during 1979. We then present and discuss in detail the reasons for the FOMC's adoption of the reform and the … inflation targeting. The record suggests that the reform was adopted when the FOMC became convinced that its earlier gradualist …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298294
proposition in the context of FOMC policy decisions over the past 20 years using publicly available FOMC projections from the … biannual monetary policy reports to the Congress (Humphrey-Hawkins reports). Our results indicate that FOMC decisions can … indeed be predominantly explained in terms of the FOMC's own projections rather than observed outcomes. Thus, a forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298399
FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 basis points between the best and worstperformers across the sample. This heterogeneity is … important as it leads to greater financial market volatility after FOMC meetings. Finally, policy-makers are not impotent in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299141
This paper examines determinants of inconsistent voting behavior in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC … as well as individual characteristics of FOMC members may play a significant role in inconsistent voting behavior. Using … FOMC voting data extracted from verbatim transcripts from 1989 until 2008 results can be summarized as follows: The regime …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011324715
economic conditions led to a large increase in the level of outstanding reserves. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010333623
novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 … financial market volatility after FOMC meetings. Finally, Fed communication may exert an influence on forecast accuracy. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604741
The phrase “liquidity effect” was introduced by Milton Friedman (1969) to describe the first of three effects on interest rates caused by an exogenous change in the money supply. The lack of empirical support for the liquidity effect using monthly and quarterly data using various monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605030
In this paper, I examine whether communications by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) play a role in determining … intensity with which FOMC statements and meeting minutes discussed labor relative to other topics. I find that these labor topic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012059584
Would a more open and regular evaluation of the monetary policy framework improve policy in the United States? Even when considering a relatively short timeframe that spans the 1960s to the present, it is possible to point to many significant changes to the framework. Some of the changes were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012059599