Nearly every epidemiologic study of residential magnetic fields and childhood leukemia has exhibited a positive association. Nonetheless, because these studies suffer from various methodologic limitations and there is no known plausible mechanism of action, it remains uncertain as to how much,...

This paper presents a command, glst, for trend estimation across different exposure levels for either single or multiple summarized case-control, incidence-rate, and cumulative incidence data. This approach is based on constructing an approximate covariance estimate for the log relative risks...

Classification errors, selection bias, and uncontrolled confounders are likely to be present in most epidemiologic studies, but the uncertainty introduced by these types of biases is seldom quantified. The authors present a simple yet easy- to-use Stata command to adjust the relative risk for...

Abstract Generalizing empirical findings to new environments, settings, or populations is essential in most scientific explorations. This article treats a particular problem of generalizability, called “transportability”, defined as a license to transfer information learned in experimental...

Abstract This note reviews basic techniques of linear path analysis and demonstrates, using simple examples, how causal phenomena of non-trivial character can be understood, exemplified and analyzed using diagrams and a few algebraic steps. The techniques allow for swift assessment of how...

Abstract In 1954, Jim Savage introduced the Sure Thing Principle to demonstrate that preferences among actions could constitute an axiomatic basis for a Bayesian foundation of statistical inference. Here, we trace the history of the principle, discuss some of its nuances, and evaluate its...

Abstract Among the many peculiarities that were dubbed “paradoxes” by well meaning statisticians, the one reported by Frederic M. Lord in 1967 has earned a special status. Although it can be viewed, formally, as a version of Simpson’s paradox, its reputation has gone much worse. Unlike...

Abstract This note illustrates, using simple examples, how causal questions of non-trivial character can be represented, analyzed and solved using linear analysis and path diagrams. By producing closed form solutions, linear analysis allows for swift assessment of how various features of the...

Abstract The structural interpretation of counterfactuals as formulated in Balke and Pearl (1994a,b) [ 1 , 2 ] excludes disjunctive conditionals, such as “had $X$ been $x_1~\mbox{or}~x_2$ ,” as well as disjunctive actions such as $do(X=x_1~\mbox{or}~X=x_2)$ . In contrast, the closest-world...

Abstract We consider ways of enabling systems to apply previously learned information to novel situations so as to minimize the need for retraining. We show that theoretical limitations exist on the amount of information that can be transported from previous learning, and that robustness to...