As part of an overall effort to upgrade and streamline methodologies for safety analyses of nonreactor nuclear facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS), a human error data base has been developed and is presented in this report. The data base fulfills several needs of risk analysts supporting...

Object-oriented analysis methods have been used in the computer science arena for a number of years to model the behavior of computer-based systems. This report documents how such methods can be applied to surety analysis. By embodying the causality and behavior of a system in a common...

The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of...

This paper describes statistical software developed at the Savannah River Site (SRS) to analyze event time of occurrence data extracted from fault tree data banks and/or user defined input data files. Five different distributions can currently be fit to the empirical data: normal, lognormal,...

In this article, we describe simulation-based decision support techniques for evaluation of operational plans within effects-based planning. Using a decision support tool, developers of operational plans are able to evaluate thousands of alternative plans against possible courses of events and...

Purpose: Manufacturing systems include a complicated combination of resources, such as materials, labors, and machines. Hence, when the manufacturing systems are faced with a problem related to the availability of resources it is difficult to identify the root of the problem accurately and...

Background: An important issue in prediction modeling of multivariate data is the measure of dependence structure. The use of Pearson's correlation as a dependence measure has several pitfalls and hence application of regression prediction models based on this correlation may not be an...

A significant problem in the area of stock selection is that of identifying the factors that affect a security’s return. While modern portfolio theory suggests a linear multi-factor model in the form of Arbitrage Pricing Theory it does not suggest the identity, or even the number, of risk...

A look at today's US military will see them operating much beyond the scope of protecting and defending the United States. These operations now consist of, but are not limited to humanitarian aid, disaster relief, and conflict resolution. This broad spectrum of operational environments has...

Despite their success and widespread usage in industry and business, ES methods have received little attention from the statistical community. We investigate three types of statistical models that have been found to underpin ES methods. They are ARIMA models, state space models with multiple...