Abstract Popular models for decision making under ambiguity assume that people use not one but multiple priors. This paper is a first attempt to experimentally elicit multiple priors. In an ambiguous scenario with two underlying states we measure a subject’s single prior, her other potential...

Base rate neglect typically involves the underweighting of priors in a world with objective probability distributions (Kahneman and Tversky, 1973). In reality, however, individuals often face scenarios with ambiguous priors, in which they have no full confidence. We show, theoretically, that...

We examine the role of the disposition effect in market efficiency following the arrival of private signals to a small group of informed traders. Subjects trade an ambiguous asset via a computer-based double auction. Using a 2x2x2 design, we endow two types of signal, i.e., positive vs....

Popular models for decision making under ambiguity assume that people use not one but multiple priors. This paper is a first attempt to experimentally elicit the min and the max of multiple priors directly. In an ambiguous scenario we measure a participant's single prior, her min and max of...

Popular models for decision making under ambiguity assume that people use not one but multiple priors. This paper is a first attempt to experimentally elicit multiple priors. In an ambiguous scenario with two underlying states we measure a subject's single prior, her other potential priors...

In standard models of ambiguity, the evaluation of an ambiguous asset, as of a risky asset, is considered as an independent process. In this process only information directly pertaining to the ambiguous asset is used. These models face signi ficant challenges from the finding that ambiguity...

Base rate neglect typically involves the underweighting of priors in a world with objective probability distributions (Kahneman and Tversky, 1973). In reality, however, individuals often face scenarios with ambiguous priors, in which they have no full confidence. We show, theoretically, that...

We introduce the speculation elicitation task (SET) to measure speculative tendencies of individuals. The resulting SET-score allows us to investigate the role of individual speculative behavior on experimental asset market bubbles. The experimental results show that overpricing in asset markets...

In our sample of 1,937 US mergers (1995 to 2011), 8.4 percent of all targets received oers with negative premiums where the initial bid undercuts the pre-announcement market price. We theoretically show that target overvaluation, market liquidity and `hidden earnouts', where target shareholders...

Despite ample evidence of ambiguity preferences in individual decision making, experimental studies of ambiguity effects in financial markets are scarce and inconclusive. Although a number of theoretical studies explain empirical puzzles in finance with ambiguity preferences, it is not a given...