Order flow is toxic when it adversely selects market makers, who may be unaware they are providing liquidity at a loss. We present a new procedure to estimate flow toxicity based on volume imbalance and trade intensity (the VPIN toxicity metric). VPIN is updated in volume-time, making it...

In this presentation, we analyze the explanatory (in-sample) and predictive (out-of-sample) importance of some of the best known market microstructural features. Our conclusions are drawn over the entire universe of the 87 most liquid futures worldwide, covering all asset classes, going back...

The efficient market hypothesis is highly discussed in economic literature. In its strongest form, it states that there are no price trends. When weakening the non-trending assumption to arbitrary short, small, and fully unknown trends, we mathematically prove for a specific class of...

Toxic arbitrage opportunities are caused by information arriving in one market leading to short lived price deviations between markets. This paper shows that the direction of such arbitrage opportunities provides valuable insights into price discovery and markets' information shares. Starting...

We model endogenous technology adoption and competition among liquidity providers with access to High-Frequency Trading (HFT) technology. HFT technology provides speed and informational advantages. Information advantages may restore excessively toxic markets. Speed technology may reduce resource...

This article introduces a very flexible framework for causal and predictive market views and stress-testing. The framework elegantly combines Bayesian networks (BNs) and Entropy Pooling (EP). In the new framework, BNs are used to generate a finite set of joint causal views / stress-tests for the...

Taking advantage of a trades-and-quotes high-frequency database, we document the main stylized facts and dynamic properties of spot precious metals, i.e. gold, silver, palladium, and platinum. We analyze the behaviors of spot prices, returns, volume, and selected liquidity measures. We find...

We propose a new methodology based on Fourier analysis to estimate the fourth power of the volatility function (spot quarticity) and, as a byproduct, the integrated function. We prove the consistency of the proposed estimator of the integrated quarticity. Further, we analyse its efficiency in...

Any lead-lag effect in an asset pair implies the future returns on the lagging asset have the potential to be predicted from past and present prices of the leader, thus creating statistical arbitrage opportunities. We utilize robust lead-lag indicators to uncover the origin of price discovery...

In this paper we implement the method of Feynman path integral for the analysis of option pricing for certain L'evy process driven financial markets. For such markets, we find closed form solutions of transition probability density functions of option pricing in terms of various special...