Dependence modelling and estimation is a key issue in the assessment of portfolio risk. When measuring extreme risk in terms of the Value-at-Risk, the multivariate normal model with linear correlation as its natural dependence measure is by no means an ideal model. We suggest a large class of...

Dependence modelling and estimation is a key issue in the assessment of portfolio risk. When measuring extreme risk in terms of the Value-at-Risk, the multivariate normal model with linear correlation as its natural dependence measure is by no means an ideal model. We suggest a large class of...

This paper continues Dietrich and List's [2010] work on propositional-attitude aggregation theory, which is a generalised unification of the judgment-aggregation and probabilistic opinion-pooling literatures. We first propose an algebraic framework for an analysis of (many-valued)...

This paper proposes a moment-matching method for approximating vector autoregressions by finite-state Markov chains. The Markov chain is constructed by targeting the conditional moments of the underlying continuous process. The proposed method is more robust to the number of discrete values and...

This paper proposes a new method for approximating vector autoregressions by a finite-state Markov chain. The method is more robust to the number of discrete values and tends to outperform the existing methods over a wide range of the parameter space, especially for highly persistent vector...

This paper continues Dietrich and List's [2010] work on propositional-attitude aggregation theory, which is a generalised unification of the judgment-aggregation and probabilistic opinion-pooling literatures. We first propose an algebraic framework for an analysis of (many-valued)...

Optimal age replacement policies for network components such as cables, overhead lines or transformers are usually identified based on gathered knowledge about the state of a component and its stochastic deterioration process. In this context, uncertainty is an important challenge because...

Results of many previous studies on the rate of small business failure suggest an inverse relationship between size of business and propensity to fail. However, it has been suggested that this inverse relationship, between firm size and the rate of discontinuance, may more accurately be...

Component failure in large-scale IT installations such as cluster supercomputers or internet service providers is becoming an ever larger problem as the number of processors, memory chips and disks in a single cluster approaches a million. In this paper, we present and analyze field-gathered...