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favorable shock to global demand and supply has a strong and positive effect on emerging markets, whereas an unanticipated rise … global shocks. In particular, the demand shock is the most critical, explaining roughly 30% of the fluctuation in output …, explaining about 20% respectively, whereas the supply shock is closely associated with the medium-to-long-term variation …
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In this paper, we examine the role of global and domestic credit supply shocks in macroeconomic fluctuations for Emerging Markets. For this purpose, we impose a set of zero and sign restrictions within a medium-scale Bayesian Vector Auto-Regressive model. Quarterly data from South Africa and G-7...
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This paper examines empirically the nonlinear business cycle dynamics due to the presence of financial frictions. Using a threshold vector auto regression, the authors estimate the behavior of interest rate shocks in which a regime change occurs if the two respective threshold variables namely...
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This paper analyses the extent to which financial integration impacts the manner in which terms of trade affect business cycles in emerging economies. Using a s mall open economy model, we show that as capital account openness increases in an economy that faces trade shocks, business cycle...
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