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depict this fact. In this paper we incorporate excess volatility into a simple DCF model by considering an autoregressive … cash flows process with random coefficients. We show that the model is free of arbitrage and that the transversality … (respectively dividend-price ratio) is stochastic and our model represents excess volatility. We discuss whether our assumptions are …
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Risk neutral densities (RND) can be used to forecast the price of the underlying basis for the option, or it may be used to price other derivates based on the same sequence. The method adopted in this paper to calculate the RND is to firts estimate daily the diffusion process of the underlying...
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Risk neutral densities (RND) can be used to forecast the price of the underlying basis for the option, or it may be used to price other derivates based on the same sequence. The method adopted in this paper to calculate the RND is to firts estimate daily the diffusion process of the underlying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001656178
well as regions of excessive price volatility and regions of excessive price stability. We find that the distortion of the …
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Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...
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