In the light of new political initiatives in Latin America, discussions of expanding the monetary cooperation in the region have intensified and the idea of monetary union is gaining popularity. Since literature on the subject widely dismisses the feasibility of Latin America adopting a single...

We use a Bayesian time-varying parameters structural VAR with stochastic volatility for GDP deflator inflation, real GDP growth, a 3-month nominal rate, and the rate of growth of M4 to investigate the underlying causes of the Great Moderation in the United Kingdom. Our evidence points towards a...

Financial markets embed expectations of central bank policy into asset prices. This paper compares two approaches that extract a probability density of market beliefs. The first is a simulated moments estimator for option volatilities described in Mizrach (2002); the second is a new approach...

The United States acted unilaterally to terminate the Bretton Woods monetary system in August 1971, and international exchange rate management went from a regime of fixed to floating parities, much to the displeasure of the membership of the European Community. The Nixon, Ford, and Carter...

We analyze the effectiveness of intervention in the European Monetary System by using daily data on the DEM-intervention activity of six European central banks, covering the period from August 1993 to April 1998. To test for the influence of intervention we apply EGARCH models. To allow for...

In this paper, we present stylized facts of exchange rate and intervention behavior in the Exchange Rate Mechanism I (ERM I), in particular in light of the recent literature on multilateral target zone models. We estimate bilateral exchange rate distributions of the maximum spot rate deviations...

The crises suffered in 1992/93 by the old EMS with its narrow exchange rate bands were largely due to the fact that the central banks' unlimited spot intervention obligations held little credibility for speculators. How can a credible exchange rate guarantee be achieved by improving the...

The system of so-called Divergence Indicators in the European Monetary System puts pressure on the monetary authorities to consult before the intervention points are reached in the foreign exchange markets. Under integration aspects this arrangement marks an advance, but it also carries risks...

The European Monetary System (EMS) has now been in operation for about one year. Dr. Burgard explains the main elements of the system and the problems still awaiting solution.