It is widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is determined by the forces of demand and supply. One of the main determinants of the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities associated with unexpected fluctuations in global real economic...

The aim of this study is to test the ability of the yield curve on US government bonds to forecast the future evolution in the prices of commodities often used in as raw materials. We consider the monthly prices of nine commodities for more than 30 years. Our findings, confirmed by several...

We try to develop a price theory for auctions of natural resources. We show that in our model of a uniform price mechanism with uncertain terminating bids, truthful revelation of price and quantity bids is a Nash Equilibrium of a game that incorporates this pricing information in its design. In...

For most commodities, the market is characterised by asymmetric market power. Often, large numbers of smallholder producers who are geographically dispersed and uncoordinated sell their commodities to a handful vertically-integrated multinational processors and distributors. This has been one of...

We study the returns to a simple trend following strategy in commodity futures markets and their drivers. Returns correlate positively to calendar spread liquidity and constraints on intermediation capital. The strategy delivers low annualized excess returns in the period from 1990 to 2004 of...

The global economy is highly dependent on commodity prices, which are, by and large, the outcome of market-specific supply and demand fundamentals. As a result, driven by different determinants, financial assets and commodity prices should be negligibly correlated. However, systematically...

This paper examines how speculative futures trading affects commodity markets in terms of price impacts, volatility, and market quality. Contrary to the popular belief that speculators are responsible for the recent commodity price fluctuation, my analysis finds no evidence that speculators...

We examine the effect of financial investments on the futures market of seventeen agriculture commodities during 2006-16. Introducing a financialization index we show that financial investors significantly affect the variation in the co-movement of these commodities. We find even stronger...