During the last years, Mexico has registered relatively large output falls. The business cycle accounting method of Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (2007) is applied to the two most recent recessions in Mexico (including the “Tequila crisis”) in order to understand what are the most important...

This paper evaluates the effects of a fall in payroll taxes on employment and wages in the presence of high labor informality. For that purpose, the paper examines a recently approved tax reform in Colombia especially targeted to promote labor formality. The model suggests that the reform would...

This paper analyzes the aggregate effects of a revenue neutral fiscal-cumsocial policy reform in a typical developing country that consists of two main changes: (1) the implementation of universal social insurance to replace the current dual social protection system (i.e., a reconfiguration of...

In a typical developing country, coverage of the contributory social security system is low. We analyze the aggregate effects of a revenue-neutral fiscal-cum-social policy reform that consists of: 1) the implementation of universal social insurance to replace the system with low coverage; and 2)...

This paper evaluates the influence of central bank's projections and narrative signals provided in the summaries of its Inflation Report on the expectations of professional forecasters for inflation and GDP growth in the case of Mexico. We use the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model, a textmining...