This paper explores how the sudden stop in capital flows to emerging market economies associated with the Covid-19 pandemic unfolded, the substantial policy responses that were needed to alleviate it, and the lessons we might draw from this episode. We identify four areas where further work...

We document how the entire distribution of exchange rate returns responds to changes in global financial conditions. We measure global financial conditions as the common component of country-specific financial condition indices, computed consistently across a large panel of developed and...

We use a no-arbitrage term structure model of equity yields computed from the prices of dividend swaps to estimate the yields on hypothetical bonds with cash-flows indexed to the level of US GDP. This provides a novel approach for estimating the possible relative cost of conventional and...

The US dollar is widely used in international trade and finance. It is the currency of choice for cross-border bank lending and international debt issuance, particularly for emerging market firms. It is also the dominant invoicing currency for trade transactions between non-US countries. Its...

We explore the role of ‘dollar shortage' shocks and central bank swap lines in a two-country New Keynesian model with financial frictions. Domestic banks issue both domestic and foreign currency debt and lend in domestic currency. Foreign currency-specific funding shocks, which are amplified...

We characterise the probability distribution of capital flows for a panel of emerging market economies conditional on information contained in financial asset prices, with a focus on ‘tail' events. Our framework, based on the quantile regression methodology, allows for a separate role of push...

This paper provides novel empirical evidence on the effect of dislocations in FX swap markets (‘CIP deviations') on bank lending. Using balance sheet data from UK banks we show that when the cost of obtaining swap-based funds in a particular foreign currency increases, banks reduce the supply...

The acceleration in the formation of global imbalances in the period preceding the last financial crisis prompted a revival of the debate on whether exchange rate regimes affect the flexibility of the current account (ie its degree of mean reversion), as originally proposed by Friedman (1953). I...