Die Verfügbarkeit ökonomischer Kennziffern auf der Ebene der Bundesländer ist erheblich begrenzter als für Deutschland insgesamt. Dies erschwert insbesondere Einschätzungen zur konjunkturellen Lage in Echtzeit. So werden (Konjunktur-) Indikatoren entweder gar nicht veröffentlicht, sind nur...

Die Beurteilung der Prognosegüte von diversen Konjunkturindikatoren und Prognosemodellen für die praktische Prognosearbeit sollte immer unter realistischen Bedingungen erfolgen. Hierfür benötigt es insbesondere Echtzeitdaten für die zu prognostizierenden Größen wie dem preisbereinigten...

Accurate real-time macroeconomic data are essential for policy-making and economic nowcasting. In this paper, I introduce a real-time database for German regional economic accounts (READ-GER). The database contains real-time information for nine macroeconomic aggregates and the 16 German states....

In this study, we systematically evaluate the potential of a bunch of survey-based indicators from different economic branches to forecasting export growth across a multitude of European countries. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyses reveal that the best-performing indicators beat a well-specified...

The ifo Institute is Germany’s largest business survey provider, with the ifo Business Climate Germany as one of the most important leading indicators for gross domestic product. However, the ifo Business Survey is not solely limited to the Business Climate and also delivers a multitude of...

In this study, we evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errors for export growth than indicators obtained from hard data such as price and cost competitiveness measures. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyses and forecastencompassing tests reveal that survey-based indicators...

In this paper we transfer the Elo rating system, which is widely accepted in chess, sports and other disciplines, to rank scientific journals. The advantage of the Elo system is the explicit consideration of the factor time and the history of a journal's ranking performance. Most other rankings...

Rankings for sports such as chess or table tennis are based on the so called Elo rating system. In this paper we apply this rating system to rank economic journals. One main advantage of the Elo ranking compared to existing ones is its explicit consideration of a journal's performance path....