A model of Markov dependent trials is considered that leads to a generalization of the binomial distribution in the context of evaluating models of a time series by exploiting the sequential nature of model-based predictions. Adopting an evaluation method similar in nature to that suggested by...

Teicher [1955] proved that the probability a Poisson distribution with mean k takes on a value of k or less is monotonically decreasing in k. I extend this inequality by proving that the probability a Poisson distribution with mean zk takes on a value of k or less is monotonically decreasing for...

In this paper, we introduce a new family of univariate continuous distributions called the Gamma Kumaraswamy-generated family of distributions. Most of its properties are studied in detail, including skewness, kurtosis, analytical comportments of the main functions, moments, stochastic ordering...

In this article we consider the efficient estimation of the tail distribution of the maximum of correlated normal random variables. We show that the currently recommended Monte Carlo estimator has difficulties in quantifying its precision, because its sample variance estimator is an inefficient...

We build on Fackler and King (1990) and propose a general calibration model for implied risk neutral densities. Our model allows for the joint calibration of a set of densities at different maturities and dates. The model is a Bayesian dynamic beta Markov random field which allows for possible...

This paper studies the approximation of extreme quantiles of random sums of heavy-tailed random variables, or more specifically, subexponential random variables. A key application of this approximation is the calculation of operational VaR (value at risk) for financial institutions, to determine...

In this paper, we derive a closed-form expression of the tail probability of the aggregate discounted claims under homogeneous, non-homogeneous and mixed Poisson risk models with constant force of interest by using a general dependence structure between the inter-occurrence time and the claim...