This paper examines fiscal policy without commitment and the effects of conditional bailout loans. The government relies on distortionary taxation and decides between full debt repayment and costly default. It tends to overborrow due to myopia, which induces default to be a relevant policy...

Based on probit estimates, this paper analyzes the effects of fiscal consolidation on the proba-bility of sovereign defaults in the short run. Using a panel of 104 developing countries from 1980 to 2009 and controlling for various economic, fiscal and political factors, we find that fiscal...

This paper studies the impact of the state-dependent risk of a government default on the correlation of the scal balance and current account. We use a small open economy model where nonlinear risk premia arise endogenously when the government operates close to its scal limit, i.e. the maximum...

Die Staatsschuldenkrise im Euroraum kann kurzfristig nicht gelöst werden: Die finanzielle Unterstützung für die Schuldnerstaaten reicht nicht aus, deren Austeritätsprogramme wirken zu restriktiv und die Mitgliedsländer sind nicht bereit, auf Fiskalkompetenz zu verzichten. Die Autoren...