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used to construct a forecast. Second, we discuss random projection regression, where artificial predictors are formed by … randomly weighting the original predictors. Using recent results from random matrix theory, we obtain a tight bound on the mean … squared forecast error for both randomized methods. We identify settings in which one randomized method results in more …
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Inflation rates are highly persistent and extremely difficult to predict. Most statistical predictions based on predictive regressions fail to outperform the simple assumption of random walk in out-of-sample testing. The poor out-of-sample performance is a common feature of predictive...
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mortality forecast accuracy by 13% - 49% and 19% - 90% for females over individual mortality models. The stacked regression …
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This paper studies the properties of multi-step projections, and forecasts that are obtained using either iterated or direct methods. The models considered are local asymptotic: they allow for a near unit root and a local to zero drift. We treat short, intermediate and long term forecasting by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012949781
vector regression (SVR) model to forecast realized volatility (RV). The first model is a residual-type model, where the RV is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014480965