Based on the typical positions of S&P 500 option market makers, we derive a funding illiquidity measure from quoted prices of S&P 500 derivatives. Our measure significantly affects the returns of leveraged managed portfolios; hedge funds with negative exposure to changes in funding illiquidity...

We propose a duration-based explanation for the major equity risk factors, including value, profitability, investment, low-risk, and payout factors. Both in the US and globally, these factors invest in firms that earn most of their cash flows in the near future. The factors could therefore be...

Ample evidence suggests that individuals are overly optimistic about future outcomes. But does the length of a particular forecast horizon affect optimism levels? In this paper, we extend Brunnermeier and Parker's (2005) optimal expectations framework to a multi-period model, which casts the...

We study jump variance risk by jointly examining both stock and option markets. We develop a GARCH option pricing model with jump variance dynamics and a non-monotonic pricing kernel featuring jump variance risk premium. The model yields a closed-form option pricing formula and improves in...

In this paper, we provide insights on the prediction of asset returns via novel machine learning methodologies. Machine learning clustering-enhanced classification and regression techniques to predict future asset return movements are proposed and compared. Numerical experiments show good...

Momentum stocks are exposed to aggregate volatility risk. This paper estimates an EGARCH model of market volatility to introduce a new volatility risk factor that prices itself, and thereby becomes a candidate risk factor for analyzing stock market anomalies such as momentum. Winners have...

In the Web Appendix to the paper by Ardia et al. (2017), we provide additional results regarding the implementation and the performance when the PRCC is computed with downside-risk measures. We further test the sensitivity to the value of the bound on the tracking error constraint and discuss...