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Motivated by the question of how one should evaluate professional election forecasters, we study a novel dynamic mechanism design problem without transfers. A principal who wishes to hire only high-quality forecasters is faced with an agent of unknown quality. The agent privately observes...
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forecasts ; directional forecast value ; forecast evaluation ; economic forecast value ; mean squared forecast error ; mean … directional forecasts can provide a useful framework to assess the economic forecast value when loss functions (or success … directional forecast value is a readily available alternative to the commonly used squared error loss criterion. -- Directional …
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regarding rating accuracy and rating theory. The implications of the results for equity valuation are discussed. …
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In this study, we examine the strategic intraday and intraweek timing of management forecast announcements based on …, we find evidence that strategically timed bad news forecast announcements that are released after the market closes are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013039315
In this paper, we perform a statistical analysis of the forecasting properties of Norges Bank's macroeconomic forecasts in the period 1998 - 2019. As a part of the analysis we assess Norges Bank's forecasts against similar forecasts by Statistics Norway and forecasts from simple models. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013207392
-term forecasting the production function approachin terms of predictive performance. For this purpose, a forecast evaluation for the …The focus of this paper is the evaluation of a very popular method for potential output estimation and medium … three to five years ahead predictions of GDP growth for the individual G7 countries is conducted. To carry out the forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003582516
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forecast is given by a factor model. Overall, we conclude that these models, or combinations of these models, can yield …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008933570
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