degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which … forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even though returns standardized by ex post quadratic variation … distribution of returns. Explicitly modeling this volatility risk is fundamental. We propose a dually asymmetric realized …

This paper studies predictability of realized volatility of U.S. Treasury futures using high-frequency data for 2-year … to generate systemic under-predictions of future realized volatility. …

Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good … forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset pricing theories. In response to this …, a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market volatility at the daily …

Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good … forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset pricing theories. In response to this …, a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market volatility at the daily …

In this paper we propose a stochastic volatility model for crude oil markets that has the particularity to feature a … OVX volatility data. The model characterizes two states: a normal state with low volatility and negative variance premium … and acrisis state with high volatility and positive variance risk premium. The estimated states are consistent with GDP …

price volatility. To address this issue, we find a phenomenon, "momentum of jumps" (MoJ), that the predictive ability of the … jump component is persistent when forecasting the oil futures market volatility. Specifically, we propose a strategy that … according to their recent past forecasting performance. The volatility data are based on the intraday prices of West Texas …

The sum of squared intraday returns provides an unbiased and almost error-free measure of ex-post volatility. In this … paper we develop a nonlinear Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model for realized volatility …, which accommodates level shifts, day-of-the-week effects, leverage effects and volatility level effects. Applying the model …