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decomposition (MRD) with the use of maximal overlap discrete wavelet transforms (MODWT). Static wavelet variance and correlation … analysis is performed, and phasing is studied using co-correlation with the euro area by scale. Lastly dynamic conditional … correlation GARCH models are used to obtain dynamic correlation estimates by scale against the EU to evaluate synchronicity of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012734874
Cycles in the behavior of stock markets have been widely documented. There is an increasing body of literature on whether stock markets anticipate business cycles or its turning points. Several recent studies assert that financial integration impacts positively on business cycle comovements of...
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This paper analyses identification for multivariate unobserved components models in which the innovations to trend and cycle are correlated. We address order and rank criteria as well as potential non-uniqueness of the reduced-form VARMA model. Identification is shown for lag lengths larger than...
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-varying correlation parameter in the covariance matrix of the transition equation’s error terms. We treat the latter parameter as a state … employs cubic splines for the auxiliary model, and a bootstrap filter method to estimate the time-varying correlation together …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013245231
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Predictability is time and frequency dependent. We propose a new forecasting method - forecast combination in the frequency domain - that takes this fact into account. With this method we forecast the equity premium and real GDP growth rate. Combining forecasts in the frequency domain produces...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013485890
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