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displayed by U.S. inflation data and discussing conceptual issues around measurement, we provide a unified framework to …We discuss the concept of core inflation and its relevance for policymakers and then review a variety of approaches …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015051935
.e. whose price changes rarely) contain more information about medium term inflation developments than those of flexible price … inflation index indeed has a forward-looking component, as it has favorable inflation forecasting properties on the policy … horizon of 1-2 years to alternative inflation indicators (including core inflation). Both theoretical and empirical results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009760587
We propose a framework for consistently evaluating core inflation measures via a straightforward application of sound … statistical inference principles. Under this framework, inflation measures (both headline and core) are regarded as estimators … tracking the economy's true, unobserved inflation rate. We depart from the arbitrary convention in the literature of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014496895
Trimmed-mean personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation does not clearly dominate PCE inflation excluding food … and energy in real-time forecasting of headline PCE inflation. However, trimmed-mean inflation is the superior … communications and policy tool because it has been a less-­biased real-time estimator of headline inflation and because it more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012846542
In closed or open economy models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize … is high. We develop an open economy model with incomplete financial markets to show that headline inflation targeting … headline inflation, assigns zero weight to import prices. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011307888
This paper attempts to designate the most efficient core inflation measure for Vietnam. Five measures of core inflation … price, the trimmed-mean, the weighted median, the exponentially smoothed and the output-neutral inflation. They are … subsequently evaluated empirically for tracking the trend, predictive power and cointegration with the headline inflation. The key …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013077421
The standard measure of core or underlying inflation is the inflation rate excluding food and energy prices. This paper … constructs an alternative measure, the weighted median inflation rate, for 38 advanced and emerging economies using subclass …, and more closely related to headline inflation over the next year. The weighted median also has a drawback: in most …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014256872
Inflation dynamics have been difficult to explain over the last decade. This paper explores if a more comprehensive … treatment of globalization can help. CPI inflation has become more synchronized around the world since the 2008 crisis, but core … and wage inflation have become less synchronized. Global factors (including commodity prices, world slack, exchange rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012225141
This paper investigates the forecasting accuracy of the trimmed mean inflation rate of the Personal Consumption …. Also addressed is the systematic bias that appears due to the differences in the means of inflation measures over the … sample. This paper supports earlier results that limited-influence estimators provide better forecasts of future inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014059262
There is no unifying framework for evaluating core inflation measures, so we propose a methodological framework to … close this gap. It allows us to construct, evaluate, and rank core inflation measures by applying it to countries and … the usual indicator that excludes food and energy, which is the most widespread measure of core inflation among central …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014382964