This working paper provides further detail on the modelling behind Challenges and Choices – New Zealand’s Long-Term Fiscal Statement, published on 29 October 2009. Building on the first Statement of 2006, we construct two main fiscal scenarios over a 40- year horizon. The historic trends...

This paper examines fiscal projections based on three consecutive budget forecasts (2009-2011) and provides cautionary insights as to how these projections only a year or two apart can lead to dramatic differences in projected debt levels in the future. Projections of net debt from a Budget 2011...

This paper examines fiscal projections based on three consecutive budget forecasts (2009-2011) and provides cautionary insights as to how these projections only a year or two apart can lead to dramatic differences in projected debt levels in the future. Projections of net debt from a Budget 2011...

The New Zealand Superannuation Fund (NZSF) is one of New Zealand's largest publicly-owned financial assets. Its primary purpose is to act as an inter-generational tax smoothing vehicle, in order to assist future taxpayers cover the cost of providing the public pension, New Zealand Superannuation...

New Zealand real interest rates have on average over the past two decades been high relative to most other countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). This paper argues that New Zealand's relatively high interest rates are currently the outcome of domestic...