Curran, Declan; Funke, Michael - Siirtymätalouksien tutkimuslaitos, Suomen Pankki - 2006
We present a new composite leading indicator of economic activity in mainland China, es-timated using a dynamic factor model. Our leading indicator is constructed from three se-ries: exports, a real estate climate index, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange index. These series are found to share a...