This paper is focused on the financial situation of enterprises introducing safeguard procedure (in other words moratorium) in the Czech Republic. The paper's aim is to show if the enterprises asking for the safeguard procedure do have financial conditions for recovering and maintaining the...

This paper uses several macroeconomic and financial indicators within a Markov Switching (MS) framework to predict the turning points of the business cycle. The presented model is applied to monthly German real-time data covering the recession and the recovery after the financial crisis. We show...

The equity premium follows a pronounced v-shape pattern around the beginning of recessions. It sharply drops into negative territory just before business cycle peaks and then strongly recovers as the recession unfolds. Recessions are preceded by an inverted yield curve. Thus probit models using...