The transcript of a panel discussion marking the fiftieth anniversary of John Muth's "Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements" (Econometrica 1961). The panel consists of Michael Lovell, Robert Lucas, Dale Mortensen, Robert Shiller, and Neil Wallace. The discussion is moderated by...

We propose and estimate several discrete choice models of monetary policy decision-making that feature time-varying inertia. The models permit us to account for three stylized facts characterizing monetary policymaking in the United States: (1) target interest rates are gradually adjusted in...

Sweden lapsed into a severe recession in 2008 but, unlike other countries, had a rapid and robust recovery. Because of its unique recession experience, it provides a revealing case for investigating monetary policy responses to macroeconomic fluctuations. We estimate Taylor rules for the...

Committees may make better monetary policy decisions than individuals; however, the benefits of group decision making could be lost if committee members cede power to a chairman. We develop an econometric model to describe intracommittee power‐sharing across members. Estimation of the model...

This paper investigates a variety of issues related to political aspects of monetary policymaking. The approach is anecdotal - it is based on our reading of textual records from meetings of the FOMC during Arthur Burns's years as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. These records include...

We use evidence from detailed records of FOMC deliberations to argue that time inconsistency theory can help explain the excessive monetary expansion that characterized Arthur Burns's tenure as Federal Reserve Chairman (1970-1978). The records suggest that the Fed perceived a Phillips curve...

We examine the role of the "bias" associated with a monetary policy directive - wording in the directive that concerns possible policy shifts in the period between one FOMC meeting and the next - in FOMC decision making in the Greenspan years. Previous studies have suggested that the bias...