explore the relationship between uncertainty and disagreement, as well as their roles in respondents' forecast performance and … forecast revisions. We observe substantial heterogeneity in respondents' uncertainty and disagreement. In addition, there is … little co-movement between uncertainty and disagreement, and forecast performance shows a more robust inverse relationship …

-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil …, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter …

-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil …, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter …

-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil …, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter …

risk of extreme climate conditions. However, being confronted with inaccurate forecast systems may undermine individuals …' responsiveness in the long run. Using an online experiment, we assess how false alarm and missed alarm-prone forecast systems …

are considered. Generally, preliminary preparations of forecast corrections are shown to be able, under specified …