A novel methodology in testing the long-run risks model of Bansal and Yaron (2004) is presented based on the observation that, under the null, the potentially latent state variables, "long-run risk" and the conditional variance of its innovation, are known a¢ ne functions of the observable...

An economy in which investors know the true model and its parameters and filter the regime probability from aggregate consumption history has been empirically rejected. Hypothesizing that prices partly reflect investorsʼ belief about the regime, we infer beliefs from prices. The model fits well...

We show that shocks to household consumption growth are negatively skewed, persistent, countercyclical, and drive asset prices. We construct a parsimonious model where heterogeneous households have recursive preferences. A single state variable drives the conditional cross-sectional moments of...

The market price-dividend ratio is highly correlated with several macroeconomic variables, particularly inflation and labor market variables, but not with aggregate consumption and GDP. We incorporate this observation in an exchange economy with learning about the economic regime from...

The Bansal and Yaron (2004) model of long run risks (LLR) in aggregate consumption and dividend growth and its extension that captures potential co- integration of the consumption and dividend levels, are tested on a cross-section of asset classes and rejected using annual data over the period...

The Bansal and Yaron (2004) model of long run risks (LLR) in aggregate consumption and dividend growth and its extension that captures potential co- integration of the consumption and dividend levels, are tested on a cross-section of asset classes and rejected using annual data over the period...

A novel methodology in testing the long-run risks model of Bansal and Yaron (2004) is presented based on the observation that, under the null, the potentially latent state variables, long-run risk and the conditional variance of its innovation, are known affine functions of the observable...