This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

The implicit assumption of linearity is an important element in empirical finance. This study presents a hypothesis testing approach which examines the linear behaviour of the conditional mean between stock and bond returns. Conventional tests detect spurious non-linearity in the conditional...

I argue that academic research often inadequately accounts for alpha decay. As an anomaly's alpha (i.e., the risk-adjusted expected excess return) and realized returns are negatively related, alpha decay coincides with positive realized returns. If the alpha decays at publication, observers may...

This research brief delves into the intricate domain of share buyback execution, particularly focusing on the temporal optionality aspect, which has been overlooked in traditional execution practices. Using a novel dataset sourced from regulatory filings on share buybacks, we employ Monte Carlo...

This paper introduces a novel hypothesis in the context of share buybacks, proposing the existence of a "Free Lunch" phenomenon associated with the use of specific execution products. The hypothesis posits that these products can generate consistently positive fees, offering a consistent return...

This hypothesis paper explores a potential anomaly within the realm of share buybacks, positing an inevitable brokerage outperformance due to temporal optionality. The hypothesis under examination is that brokerage firms, regardless of stock price movements, can consistently outperform due to...

The central question addressed in this note is whether it is better to sell (and re-purchase) appreciated assets now and pay today's long-term capital gains tax rate, or wait to realize gains in the future and pay a likely higher capital gains tax rate. The authors argue that a framework based...

This paper presents a robust analysis of temporal optionality in share buyback executions, shedding light on a significant empirical anomaly and providing a novel value optimization approach. Through empirical studies, we discern an intriguing pattern in trading schedules that aligns with the...

The validity of CAPM has been contingent on its security market line hypothesis, which asserts that higher-beta-risk assets should carry higher expected returns. Owing to a lack of empirical support for that hypothesis, many have declared CAPM dead. However, by surrogating assets'...