This is an introductory article which explains the importance of explicit consideration and modeling of causality, contrary to current econometric practice, in order to use data set for extraction of meaningful information. One of the easiest to understand approaches to causality is via...

A dynamic microeconomic model is presented that establishes the price and unit sales evolution of heterogeneous goods consisting of successive homogenous product generations. It suggests that for a fast growing supply the mean price of the generations are governed by a logistic decline towards a...

We analyze the properties of multiperiod forecasts which are formulated by a number of companies for a fixed horizon ahead which moves each month one period closer and are collected and diffused each month by some polling agency. Some descriptive evidence and a formal model suggest that knowing...

This paper presents a study of a coordinated production inventory-system. In the proposed model, any echelon considers its successors as part of its inventory system and generates the replenishment order on the basis of operational information of its partners. We show that the coordinated...

This paper introduces the class of volatility modulated Lévy-driven Volterra (VMLV) processes and their important subclass of Lévy semistationary (LSS) processes as a new framework for modelling energy spot prices. The main modelling idea consists of four principles: First, deseasonalised spot...

The outbreak of COVID-19 in China during the Spring Festival of 2020 is an unprecedented event. Its impact has spread throughout the country and around the world. In order to explore the impact of the epidemic on China's economy, this paper starts with the analysis of the daily railway passenger...

We introduce a three-factor model of electricity spot prices, consisting of a deterministic seasonality and trend function as well as short- and long-term stochastic components, and derive a formula for futures prices. The long-term component is modelled as a Lévy process with increments...

Expectile regression produces the best linear unbiased estimator for regression lines other than the mean regression in model designs with asymmetric conditional variance of the error term. In some cases where OLS assumptions are violated, an expectile regression estimator is also the BLUE for...

In today’s technology-driven world-economy, banking-services have been modernized where customers compete for comparative time-saving-options. Bangladesh, a developing country, is no exception. Besides traditional banking, Agent-banking, bKash, Western-Union etc. serve new-way...

This paper introduces a new modelling framework for energy spot prices based on Lévy semistationary processes. Lévy semistationary processes are special cases of the general class of ambit processes. We provide a detailed analysis of the probabilistic properties of such models and we show how...