Probabilistic choice models are used by economists, psychologists, and marketing scientists in the analysis of choice behavior involving discrete, or quantal choice alternatives. The most widely-used of these is the multinomial logit model, which is a special case of the Luce model. These models...

Random utility models often involve terms which represent alternative-specific errors, and the main attractive feature of the multinomial probit (MNP) model is that it allows a rather general covariance structure for these errors. However, since observed choices only reveal information regarding...

This paper describes an ongoing project to develop a demand forecasting model for clean-fuel vehicles in California. Large-scale surveys of both households and commercial fleet operators have been carried out. These data are being used to calibrate a new micro-simulation based vehicle demand...

This research describes a new model of household vehicle use behavior by type of vehicle. Forecasts of future vehicle emissions, including potential gains that might be attributed to introductions of alternative-fuel (clean-fuel) vehicles, critically depend upon the ability to forecast...

In this paper we revisit various important issues relating to practical estimation of the multinomial probit model, using an empirical analysis of car ownership as a test case. To provide context, a brief literature review of empirical probit studies is included. Estimates are obtained for a...

On July 22, 2002, Governor Gray Davis signed AB 1493 into law. This law requires that the California Air Resources Board (CARB) propose rules that would reduce greenhouse gas emissions of light duty vehicles in California. The goal of this study was to provide insight into industry and consumer...

Dynamic, disaggregate choice models which use longitudinal data are known to have clear advantages over cross-sectional models, but they also have their own unique estimation problems. The correlation among unobserved error components ("heterogeneity") that is likely to exist in such data sets...

The vehicle choice model developed here is one component in a mlcro-slmulatlon demand forecasting system being designed to produce annual forecasts of new and used vehicle demand by vehicle type and geographic area in Cahforma. The system will also forecast annual vehicle miles traveled for all...

We compare multinomial logit and mixed logit models for data on California households' revealed and stated preferences for automobiles. The stated preference (SP) data elicited households' preferences among gasoline, electric, methanol, and compressed natural gas vehicles with various...

A growing literature contends that, because returns are not normal, higher-order co-moments matter to risk-averse investors. Fama and French (1993, 1995) find that nonmarket risk factors based on size and book-to-market ratio are priced by investors. We test the hypothesis that the Fama-French...