usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. We find that world industrial production is one of …

In this paper we document the results of a forecast evaluation exercise for the real world price of crude oil using VAR …, change in global crude oil production) by the sparse methods is associated with substantial reductions of forecast errors … is not associated with additonal gains in forecast performance as is the application of impulse indicator saturation …

currencies, and weakening financial conditions, recent trends in oil prices might not persist further without triggering world …