We analyze boundedly rational updating from aggregate statistics in a modelwith binary actions and binary states. Agents each take an irreversible action in sequence after observing the unordered set of previous actions. Each agent first forms her prior based on the aggregate statistic, then...

This paper provides a model of social learning where the order in which actions are taken is determined by an $m$-dimensional integer lattice rather than along a line as in the herding model. The observation structure is determined by a random network. Every agent links to each of his preceding...

This paper provides a model of social learning where the order in which actions are taken is determined by an m-dimensional integer lattice rather than along a line as in the herding model. The observation structure is determined by a random network. Every agent links to each of his preceding...

We address the question to which degree the private information of a decision maker is revealed through his action, in an environment with compact metrizable state and action space. We show that the decision maker's optimal action reveals his posterior distribution for a generic set of...

An investor has a strictly increasing Bernoulli utility function. He chooses an expected utility maximizing portfolio among a finite set of assets with random return profile. A compensation scheme assigns positive payments to the investor depending on his portfolio and the realized return...

This paper analyzes a sequential social learning game with a general utility function, state and action space. We show that asymptotic learning holds for every utility function if and only if signals are totally unbounded, i.e., the support of the private posterior probability of every event...

Mean-preserving contractions are critical for studying Bayesian models of information design. We introduce the class of bi-pooling policies, and the class of bi-pooling distributions as their induced distributions over posteriors. We show that every extreme point in the set of all...

Bayesian experts with a common prior that are exposed to different types of evidence possibly make contradicting probabilistic forecasts. A policy maker who receives the forecasts must aggregate them in the best way possible. This is a challenge whenever the policy maker is not familiar with the...

We consider a multi-receiver Bayesian persuasion problem where an informed sender tries to persuade a group of receivers to adopt a certain product. The sender is allowed to commit to a signaling policy where she sends a private signal to every receiver. The utility of the sender is a function...

Consider a setting where many individuals make predictions over the (unknown) state of nature based on signals they receive independently. An outside Bayesian observer, familiar with the common prior shared by the individuals, can aggregate this information and identify correctly the actual...