This study investigates job search activity in the United States by constructing a set of sectoral job search activity indices based on Internet search volumes. The indices are positively associated with countercyclical labour market measures, including unemployment and layoff rates, but are...

This study investigates the effects of political uncertainty (PU) on corporate debt maturity and leverage using a novel measure of firm-specific PU. We find that PU is negatively associated with debt maturity and leverage. Furthermore, the negative effects of PU on debt maturity and leverage are...

Although most empirical studies conclude that uncertainty delays firms' investments based on real options theory, empirical evidence regarding the impact of uncertainty on innovation is mixed. This study examines the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on corporate research and development (R&D)...

This paper examines the effects of public news releases on the market liquidity in one of the most important OTC derivatives markets — the CDS market. We document that, at the time of news releases, the bid-ask spread is wider, the number of quotes is larger, and the number of dealers is...

This study examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on sovereign CDS spreads using a large sample of countries. We show how sovereign CDS spreads have widened significantly in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the most conservative estimate, a 1% increase in COVID-19 infections...

This study investigates how firms’ lobbying activities change over business cycles. We show that firms lobby more during recessions. Aside from active lobbying firms, non-lobbying firms are also more likely to start lobbying during recessions. Corporate lobbying generally responds only to...

This study examines the effect of economic and political uncertainty on sovereign CDS spreads using a novel panel index of world uncertainty. We document that sovereign CDS spreads widen with uncertainty. A 1% increase in uncertainty leads to a 0.86% increase in sovereign CDS spreads....

This study develops a new economic uncertainty (EU) index based on Chinese newspapers by addressing the media coverage bias of existing measures. The developed index refines the existing methods on measuring uncertainty by taking special characteristics of China into consideration, which turns...

We employ the indicator saturation approach on electricity price series from the National Electricity Market (NEM) in Australia to simultaneously model the stylised facts of electricity prices, including extreme spikes, seasonality, level-shifts, and autocorrelation. Standard modelling methods...

This paper develops a systemic risk index for China (SRIC) using textual information from 26 leading newspapers in China. Our index measures the systematic risk from 21 topics relating to China’s economy and provides narratives of the sources of systemic risk. We examine the predictability of...