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We propose uncertainty shocks as a new shock that drives business cycles. First, we demonstrate that microeconomic uncertainty is robustly countercyclical, rising sharply during recessions, particularly during the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Second, we quantify the impact of timevarying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055640
We derive robust predictions on the effects of uncertainty on short run investment dynamics in a broad class of models with (partial) irreversibility. When their environment becomes more uncertain firms become more cautious and less responsive to demand shocks. This result contrasts with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293014
Uncertainty faced by individual firms appears to be heterogeneous. In this paper, I construct new empirical measures of firm-level uncertainty using data from the I/B/E/S and Compustat. These new measures reveal persistent differences in the degree of uncertainty facing individual firms not...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011401309
We investigate the effect of uncertainty on investment. We employ a unique dataset of 25000 Greek firms' balance sheets for 14 years covering the period before and after the eurozone crisis. A dynamic factor model is employed to proxy uncertainty. The investment performance of 14 sectors is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012060122
This paper shows that, contrary to common beliefs, the real options effect of uncertainty plays no role in the long run rate of investment. This is proven for both the standard investment model with Cobb-Douglas production and Brownian motion demand, and also for a broader class of models with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014036567
, investment irreversibility, and time-varying risk premia. In my model, firms have a precautionary-savings motive and real options … to wait, both of which interact with time-varying uncertainty and are reinforced by state-dependent risk premia. My model … the observed firm behaviors in high uncertainty states, and (2) time-varying risk premia amplify the impact of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012983559
although risk can be measured, uncertainty cannot be measured. Even though risk can be measured, a simple symmetric measure … attempt at "measuring" risk or (fundamental) uncertainty is flawed. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011543578
The aim of this work is to give an overview on nonlinear expectation and to relate them to other concepts that describe model uncertainty or imprecision in a probabilistic framework. We discuss imprecise versions of stochastic processes with a particular interest in imprecise Markov chains....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012135809
firm-level capital investment, risk management, and debt issuance. The effects of uncertainty vary significantly by firm … capital investment is significantly weaker for firms that hedge their output price risk. Our analysis highlights that, in the … ability to hedge risk exposures …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012974060
We study the effects of uncertainty on corporate leverage adjustments with respect to investment spikes and find that overlevered and underlevered firms behave very differently in response to the combination of uncertainty and investment spikes. Overlevered firms facing high uncertainty converge...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012855716