Do futures markets have a stabilizing or destabilizing effect on commodity prices? Empirical evidence is inconclusive. We try to resolve this question by means of a learning-to-forecast experiment in which a futures market and a spot market are coupled. The spot market exhibits negative feedback...

How does futures trading affect spot price volatility? This paper uses a unique early-twentieth century natural experiment to test what happens when futures trading no longer exists. In 1903, futures trading in the Viennese grain market was banned. The permanency of this ban makes it ideal for...

High-frequency sentiment time series are extracted from Twitter data concerning the European emissions market and are used to explain returns and volatility in European emissions futures. The measures of negative sentiment are shown to Granger-cause EUA futures returns, while positive sentiment...

Do futures markets have a stabilizing or destabilizing effect on commodity prices? Empirical evidence is inconclusive. We try to resolve this question by means of a learning-to-forecast experiment in which a futures market and a spot market are coupled. The spot market exhibits negative feedback...

This paper examines the empirical literature on individual equity options, discussing results in areas of consensus, showing findings in areas of disagreement and providing a guide for future research (especially highlighting analyses that cannot be performed with index options). Key topics...

In this era of inexpensive computation and vast data, systematic, or algorithmically driven, investment is increasingly popular. Systematic strategies appear in stand-alone products as well in tail-hedging and defensive-overlay strategies. Indeed, given the enormous growth in data, it is...

The role of public sentiment in stock market volatility has recently become increasingly relevant. Twitter, in theory, offers an inexpensive way to measure real-time public sentiment. We take advantage of a natural experiment to assess the potential improvement that social media adds to forecast...

This paper investigates the risk and return properties of a trading strategy for the cryptocurrency market. The main predictive power for portfolio formation comes from a simple prospect theory model that only uses price information readily available. The dataset consists of a large body of...

This study investigates the dynamic connectedness across the variance risk premium in international developed and emerging equity markets based on a Bayesian time-varying parameter vector autoregressive methodology.The empirical results indicate that the total spillover index is on average...

We derive new bounds on the rational variation in asset prices over time. The resulting test requires no proxy for fundamental value, and it allows significantly more flexibility in preferences and discount rates than in standard volatility tests. We gain traction by focusing specifically on...