This working paper examines what might loosely be termed a ‘twenty years crisis’ in the history of the transatlantic relationship since the turn of the new century. Like the death of Mark Twain the demise of the relationship has been announced many times before, but like Twain himself has...

This note discusses the scale of the risks to bilateral UK-EU trade under alternative scenarios for the UK leaving the Union, including a hard Brexit, a soft EFTA-like Brefta, and the scope for the foregone UK-EU trade to be made up through alternative agreements. It comments on the risks to...

In a period of sluggish economic growth, the Brexit saga adds additional uncertainty to trade issues, concluding half a century of troubled EU-UK experience. In the post-Brexit era, the UK will be the third external EU_27 partner after the USA and China. Especially inbound trade (from the UK to...

This note develops four alternative estimates of the trade-related impacts of the United Kingdom seceding from the European Union. We contrast two basic scenarios: an exit that re-sets the UK's relationship with the rest of the EU to a WTO-rules most favoured nation basis (“Brexit”), versus...

This paper summarises the economic analyses of the potential impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom, European Union (EU) and euro area performed by members of and contributors to the Brexit Task Force, a group reporting to the International Relations Committee of the European System of Central...